Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 2.276579 2.653390 3.071039 3.568006 4.143012 4.787190 5.563471
2026-01-11 1.677924 2.178369 2.792733 3.601213 4.636103 5.915454 7.616501
2026-01-18 1.297960 1.841705 2.567661 3.605028 5.046713 6.976854 9.755127
2026-01-25 1.036417 1.585796 2.373249 3.579460 5.375648 7.946181 11.899287
2026-02-01 0.804966 1.316528 2.097128 3.368139 5.378803 8.428600 13.396676
2026-02-08 0.654816 1.136754 1.914396 3.251361 5.482980 9.046683 15.154562
2026-02-15 0.556495 1.019848 1.806346 3.226733 5.715210 9.877373 17.343959
2026-02-22 0.501923 0.966459 1.792189 3.351641 6.206357 11.185194 20.492343
2026-03-01 0.435171 0.878273 1.701167 3.322560 6.416423 12.029651 22.937581
2026-03-08 0.376423 0.794400 1.603535 3.263062 6.556208 12.757364 25.255351
2026-03-15 0.334129 0.735493 1.543455 3.264289 6.806970 13.714435 28.118893
2026-03-22 0.322407 0.737656 1.604047 3.514087 7.580439 15.764447 33.368563
2026-03-29 0.291960 0.696121 1.572175 3.575704 7.995751 17.195687 37.645442
2026-04-05 0.264245 0.656235 1.538481 3.630398 8.409796 18.691018 42.290774
2026-04-12 0.236911 0.612290 1.488794 3.641681 8.730922 20.035115 46.805550
2026-04-19 0.211016 0.566999 1.428518 3.618416 8.969262 21.229245 51.153200
2026-04-26 0.177894 0.497142 1.298145 3.405685 8.729252 21.312237 52.967157
2026-05-03 0.154590 0.448554 1.211995 3.287917 8.700165 21.876805 55.990346
2026-05-10 0.138803 0.417435 1.165197 3.263114 8.899398 23.011422 60.552406
2026-05-17 0.131306 0.408340 1.174949 3.389428 9.507501 25.230067 68.123531
2026-05-24 0.118385 0.380907 1.130304 3.360039 9.696968 26.416215 73.204495
2026-05-31 0.105885 0.352332 1.077742 3.299892 9.793314 27.373779 77.815342
2026-06-07 0.096828 0.332778 1.048035 3.301133 10.062609 28.826538 83.962211